Forex Wrap 11-04-2009

November 4th, 2009 DerekS No comments

The big news on the day wasn’t that the FOMC left rates unchanged.  That was expected.   It was the language within the statement itself that caught traders’ attention.  Specifically, the FOMC foresees a continuation in the “exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rate for an extended period.”  While this statement looks innocent enough on the surface, this single sentence… 12 little words… erased what was mounting to be exceptional gains on Wall Street.  Within two blinks of the eye 130 positive DOW points vanished.  Equity traders were hoping the FOMC statement would indicate that those “green shoots” were growing up into fruit bearing plants, however, the FOMC basically said there will not be fruit “for an extended period of time.”  Equities sank… but risk currencies closed around their highs???  How is that???  Has the dollar become that unattractive???

 

EUR/USD:  Support around 1.4700, Resistance around 1.4900

 

GBP/USD:  Support around 1.6400, Resistance around 1.6600

 

USD/JPY:  Maybe the pair to watch as we approach the end of the wedge… Support: 90.50, Resistance: 91.20

 

Thanks,

 

Derek Siek

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RIMM testing 10/30 - 10/31 GAP

November 4th, 2009 DerekS Comments off

RIMM at a critical level…

Failure to hold this area could put the 10/30 – 10/31 gap back into play…

Potentially targeting $57.20 in the short term…

Looking at a 60 minute chart brought you to by LightWave...

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Market Wrap 11-03-2009

November 3rd, 2009 DerekS Comments off

DOW: 9771 down 17

NASDAQ: 2057 up 8

SP 500: 1045 up 2

 

EUR/USD:  1.4730 down .0043

USD/JPY:  90.31 up .05

GBP/USD:  1.6439 up .0034

 

Risk currencies were trading around session lows at the opening bell in New York when a wave of M&A news spurred a new bout of risk appetite.  Warren Buffett (a.k.a. The Oracle) agrees to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI) for $100.00 a share and tool maker Stanely Works agreed to acquire Black and Decker (BDK) in a $3.5 billion dollar stock deal.  M&A (mergers and acquisitions) news and rising commodity prices helped bolster risk keeping U.S. Equities nearly flat and pushing EUR, GBP, AUD and others off of session lows.

$DJI: Wedge on the daily.  Trend line support comes in around today’s low of 9700.  First level of resistance around 9850, then at the top of the wedge a smidge above 9900.

$COMPQ: Wedge on the daily.  Trend line support comes in around today’s lows 2030.  Looks like we closed around resistance.  Tech led the rally, could lead the pullback.

$SPX: Wedge on the daily.  Trend line support comes in around today’s low of about 1030.  Resistance eyed 1050 – 1060 area.

EUR/USD:  In a bit of a channel.  Today’s dip below 1.4680 seemed like a “brear trap” to me.  Looks like the channel is back in play.  Support 1.4680ish and resistance 1.4800 and then 1.4850.

GBP/USD:  Trading in the mild of a wedge on the daily.  Support eyed at 1.6320ish.  Resistance a smidge above 1.6500.  Wish I could be more help here but this one has been all over the place.

USD/JPY:  Wedge on the daily. Support comes in around the 90, beyond that the low end of the wedge 89.20ish.  Resistance a touch above 91 and more around 91.60


For more Market Wraps and Trading Alerts, make sure you check out http://www.wizetradealerts.com?cid=07013

Thanks,

Derek Siek...

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RIMM testing Trend line resistance

November 3rd, 2009 DerekS Comments off

RIMM testing Trend line resistance (Chart brought to you by LightWave)

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re: AUD/CAD possible head and shoulders… 100+ pips later

November 3rd, 2009 DerekS No comments

100+ pips later:

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AUD/CAD possible “head and shoulders” on the daily

November 2nd, 2009 DerekS No comments

AUD/CAD has a possible "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily chart:

 

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re:EUR/USD Trend Line… 100+ pips later

October 29th, 2009 DerekS Comments off

100+ Pips later

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Setting up the 720 Ninja STRIKE in CTFX

October 29th, 2009 KevDixon Comments off

Hello Traders,

I get a lot of questions regarding the best ways to capture profits using the 720 Ninja Strike so I wanted to take a moment to detail what I look for in the charts.  I have a LONG version and a SHORT version and recently added to my FRIENDS list a version to capture PULLBACKS.  I will outline the proper use below.

The 720 Ninja Strike strategy can be used to capture 2 styles of trade:  As a CONTINUATION (of the current trend) or as a PULLBACK (from the current trend).

Let's talk about setting up the CONTINUATION style first.  Change your overview intervals to POSITION TRADING and take in the full view and look at the charts.  Seperate the charts by trend (Look for Mid Term and Long Term in agreement).

A CONTINUATION refers to the overall trend as indicated through the 3 FAST Wizemen.  The mindset here is similiar to the Swing Trade Setup as a means to enter a Swing Trade Long so the lights should be STRONG to the TREND on the Long Term and Mid Term, the setup will be the lights underneath (720, 360, 240, 180, 60) going the opposite direction you wish to trade for 1 or 2 intervals.  When the TREND continues, these lights will turn GREEN (LONG) and enter the trade WITH THE TREND.  The Continuation 720 Ninja Strikes are called 720 Ninja Strike ATR LONG and 720 Ninja Strike ATR SHORT.  The exit rules for each are 40% Stop Loss, 40% Target with a 5% Trailing Stop.

Continuation trades are safer because the trend carries the trade!

A PULLBACK trade means that we have been moving the same direction for several intervals and now the charts have become OVEREXTENDED!  (Overextended charts are best reflected on the SHORT Term interval.)  Look for 3 to 4 days into the trend before considering this style.  And the Long Term and Mid Term will be opposite the color you with to trade since this is counter trend.  Example:  Long Term, Mid Term and Short Term are all GREEN and the DAY Chart is overextended so we are looking to take this trade SHORT.

The thought process here is that we use the PULLBACK as a COUNTER TREND trade meaning we are attempting to trade against the overall trend.  As you can imagine, this is a RISKIER style but nonetheless very effective at capturing quick reversals of the overall trend.

On the CommandTRADE Wednesday Night Advanced Training from October 28th, I explain this process and actually built 2 customized strategies with adjusted exits.  This is available on demand so feel free to view this at your leisure.

 I scaled down the Stop Loss and Target Profit to better hit the target since this trade is counter trend.  The new strategies are on my FRIENDS list as stated above and are called 720 Ninja Strike ATR Pullback (There is one under LONG/BULL and one under BEAR/SHORT)

The entry rules are the same but the exits have been changed to make this a better risk to reward trade.  I have adjusted the PULLBACK exits to a 25% Stop Loss, a 31% Target and a 5% Trailing Stop.  This better captures the PULLBACK trade and gets out before a CONTINUATION of the trend takes the trade away.

Remember, this is a Swing Trade style strategy and if you can understand the simple rules for setting up the trade you may find this to be one of your favorite strategies!  As a matter of fact, if you think about it like this:  "The market is always just continuing the trend or pulling back from the trend" then you can see why I love this strategy as much as I do.  You may not use it everyday as a Swing Trader, but when you do it offers a low risk to reward opportunity.

I hope this information helps you understand what to look for, how to set up the trade and most of all which style to choose.

Tune in to WTV Channel 3 and CommandCENTRAL for all your CTFX needs or send us an email to info@commandtradefx.com.

Thanks for your time and HAPPY TRADING!

-kev

 

 

 

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EUR/USD Trend Line

October 27th, 2009 DerekS Comments off

EUR/USD testing trend line

Below, a 500 day price chart (blue line is the trend line)...

I eye balled the trend line around 1.4720...

Notice the Short Term Chart looking as though she could flip to green around this area.  You will also see how previous resistance could become current support:

Lights are gathering steam:

 

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Grand Challenge 3 is under way!

October 20th, 2009 KevDixon No comments

Hello Traders!

Sunday marked the official kickoff for CTFX Grand Challenge 3, a trader's challenge that runs through the end of the year!

This traders challenge is designed to pit traders heads up over the next 2 1/2 months to see who can net the most single lot pips.  The Grand Prize Winner will be the trader that clears to the most single lot pips either LIVE trades or PAPER trades depending on your comfort level.

I urge you all to participate to gain experience trading, to make profits and to become more familiar with your trade plan, the currency pairs and the overall market.  Besides the fact it is fun and educational!

The Grand Challenge 2 Winner, Rhani the Morrocan Man netted over 2000 PIPS to become the overall Champion, now its your turn!

Remember, if you don't trade you can't win!

 

To enter GRAND CHALLENGE 3: 

1.    Send an email to grandchallenge@commandtradefx.com with your name and if possible, your trade plan.

2.    Trade your plan either Paper or LIVE or a combination of the 2 beginning on Oct 18th thru Dec 31st 2009.  It does not matter if you start late, only that you participate.

3.    Forward your results at the end of each week to grandchallenge@commandtradefx.com

4.    Watch CommandCENTRAL for updates and tune in to WTC Channel 3.

 

Good LUCK and Happy Trading!

-kev

 

 

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